Go Ask Alice

Go Ask Alice!

Ah what is not being reported in our news... I read the East Africa paper (it is part of the Nation but covers all of East Africa and is published once a week).The back story to the "diplomacy" negotiations shouldn't upset me but it does. Once again America only cares about what is in its short term interests. Boy when Bush finally kicks the bucket he's going to have a lot of explaining to do when he meets God.

Kufuor was off like a prom dress after a couple of days and Annan hasn't arrived yet. Annan came down with a flu "on his way to the airport" and went to bed. Now how does that happen folks? Ooops I just noticed I was too sick to fly? He was flying not driving so one would think he'd have noticed. Or maybe the aides would have noticed. Nah, there's something else afoot. Oh say the demonstrations by Odinga's side. Whatever, it looks like it is going to be a long dreary march to stability and all the Americans want is for them to settle down over there because it's driving up the price of oil. I know it will come as no surprise Bush is backing Kibaki. They both stole elections, so I guess they are definitely kindred spirts. Democaracy what's that???

Keep tuned folks, it's going to get curiouser and curiouser. 8 were killed in the rioting in Kisumu and the slums yesterday. ODM is having one more day of "protests" and then says they're going to stop. They bemoan the bloodshed but not enough to quit early.

Here's the article from the East African published today. I think I'm getting squiffy reading all this.
Have a nice weekend y'all. And don't forget to pray for the children. They continue to be so frightened.

Kufuor’s whistle-stop diplomacy was only to pave way for Annan

By JAINDI KISERO
The EastAfrican

Chairman of the African Union and President of Ghana John Kufuor had clearly come Nairobi hoping for a quick-fix solution to Kenya’s political crisis.

According to details The EastAfrican has gleaned from individuals who were close to the negotiations, the West African leader was clearly a man in a hurry.

It would appear that all he wanted to achieve was to get the protagonists Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki to a face-to-face meeting, arrange a photo opportunity for the two and jet out of the country — leaving the rest to a committee of eminent persons headed by the former secretary general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, to thrash out details of a comprehensive peace deal.

Contrary to widely held belief, the issue of appointing Raila Odinga prime minister did not arise at all during the negotiations with President Kufuor.

Originally, the plan was that the meeting with the ODM would take place at Orange House. But it is understood that the government protested, arguing that protocol demanded that the meetings take place at a neutral venue.

Our sources said the first meeting with Raila Odinga did not go very well. President Kufuor reportedly reminded Raila that he was still very young compared with Kibaki and could therefore wait to run for president again in 2012.

Kufuor gave Raila his own example, saying he had waited 30 years before eventually being elected president of Ghana.

Kufuor also stressed to Raila how they had a common background, pointing out that he himself had also served in jail for one-and-a-half years as a political prisoner.

The fact that President Mwai Kibaki had appointed a Cabinet also came up. The ODM team said the president had presented them with a fait accompli. President Kufuor said he had learnt about the Cabinet appointments while still on the plane.

Clearly, that first encounter did not go well. But it was when Kufuor met the rest of the ODM team that positions started hardening.

According to our sources, the ODM Pentagon members argued that it did not make sense to rush a face-to-face meeting with Kibaki without agreeing first on the subject matter.

They told the mediator that the parties needed to agree on the nature of the problem and the way forward first.

The following day, President Kufuor visited President Mwai Kibaki at State House. He returned to the ODM team to announce that Kibaki had agreed to meet Raila Odinga at State House.

He explained that Kibaki had informed him that his decision to appoint the Cabinet had been taken in good faith as the government had to function.

He reportedly gave the example of the Ministry of Education, which he said had to be appointed because schools had reopened. Kibaki also reportedly explained that the vice president had to be appointed so that he could fill the vacuum in case the president became indisposed.

As it turned out, the venue of the proposed meeting itself became a big issue. According to our sources, the ODM insisted that in view of the fact that President Kibaki had gone ahead and appointed a Cabinet, they would not agree to meet him at State House.

Instead, they wanted the proposed face-to-face meeting between Raila and Kibaki to be held within the precincts of parliament.

In the process of delivering this message, some of the remarks made by the mediator raised temperatures. He apparently told the ODM team that they should consider a meeting with the president as a great honour.

After debate, it was then agreed that the face-to-face meeting between Raila and Kibaki would take place at Harambee House.

It was during discussion of the Harambee House meeting that the controversial agreement on power-sharing that eventually caused the talks to collapse came up.

The meeting agreed that the controversial document would form the basis of the truce and consequently the face-to-face meeting between Raila and Kibaki.

Where did this controversial document come from and did President Kibaki know about its contents? Did the president commit to implementing the controversial agreement at any point during the negotiations?

What we have been able to establish is that at the height of the ethnic violence that gripped Rift Valley Province, a group of Mombasa-based businessmen and allies of Pentagon member Musalia Mudavadi joined hands with World Bank country director Colin Bruce apparently to offer freelance secret mediation between Mwai Kibaki and Raila.

We have also confirmed from the diplomatic community that all major diplomatic missions in Nairobi were aware of the parallel mediation process that had begun long before Kufuor came into town.

One senior Western diplomat, speaking to The EastAfrican under conditions of anonymity, admitted having been shown the document by Mr Bruce as early as Saturday last week.

It has also emerged that the document was widely circulated to Western diplomatic missions.

Did Colin Bruce have the mandate from Kibaki to work on the agreement?

Who were the other shadowy characters working with the World Bank representative? Is it conceivable that a senior World Bank official should have involved himself in the negotiations so intimately without the knowledge of his hosts? These questions still lack answers.

In a sense, the Colin Bruce saga has given credence to the perception that the president is surrounded by powerbrokers pulling in different directions.

Apparently, Colin Bruce intimated to many Western diplomats that everything was to be done secretly to prevent the hardliners in Kibaki’s Cabinet knowing what was going on.

While a well-designed and internationally mediated agreement might well tip the scales in favour of democracy, if Kenya retrogresses, grave strains will be placed on the stability of East Africa. What is emerging, however, is that the United States and European countries appear to be pulling in different directions in the conflict.

What emerges from the ODM side, however, are doubts about the US’s neutrality in the crisis.

Washington’s overriding concern in Kenya is stability. Indeed, ODM stalwarts say US top diplomat Jendayi Frazer, who was last Friday still in the country, has been pushing them to accept Cabinet positions in Kibaki’s government and ignore the genesis of the conflict.

In contrast, the Europeans, through the European Union, are pushing for a re-tallying of the presidential vote and, finally, a re-run of the presidential election.

Until the international community start to pull in one direction, Western policy will be an irritation rather than an obstacle to President Kibaki.

Going forward, John Kufuor’s aborted mediation attempt is likely to lead to more brinkmanship from both sides of the divide.

As it is, it is not clear whether ODM will embrace the next phase of mediation by Kofi Annan, expected to kick off next week.

In the broadest sense, Kenya may choose from two paths: one that leads towards reconciliation, reconstruction and democracy; and a second that leads to violence whether in the form of an insurgency, militia-based ethnic conflict or a civil war engulfing regions. The threat of wide-scale violence looms large. Pre-emption should be the focus of the international community.


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